It would not be surprising if both Charles Kennedy and Tony Blair received the
results with a comment no more profound than, "Well, f--k me !"
Kennedy, with the Liberal Democrat conference about to start, must have been
hopping about, clicking the heals of his shoes together in delight, as a
future General Election victory looks to be finally within his grasp. If he
can produce the same results as he did in Brent East, he will have a landslide
victory coming his way.
Ian "Dickhead" Smith, watching the Conservative Party knocked cleanly into
third place, although only dropping 2% of their vote, launched a savaging attack
on the Liberal Democrat party, accusing them of pretending to be moderates when
they are really left wing. He believes that he can use this to turn future
elections to the Tories' advantage, but many of the electorate may be very
happy to see the Liberal Democrats move to the left to fill the gap as
the Blairite shift to the right continues. Bring it on, many would say, and
genuinely welcome such a move.
It is usually political parties which change their stance, not the electorate
who, despite their whims, usually remain pretty firmly routed in personal
ideology. If one party moves to the ground which doesn't suit them, they'll
look for another
which does. If the Liberal Democrats have taken up that space, then they have
secured themselves a firm rock upon which to launch a General Election challenge
as Labour drifts out to sea.
If it is only that the difference between personal ideology and party ideology
is less between the electorate and the Liberal Democrats than it is with Labour
then Labour will have to move back before the elastic of any residual wish to
remain with
them snaps entirely. With Blair's refusal to listen to the public's genuine
concerns on what separates them from the party, the party is not having its
course changed, and it is going to be hard for them to drag
the electorate back on board. The party is sailing along a river of its own
choosing and may soon drift over a waterfall, lost to all hope.
As, once loyal, Labour Party supporters abandon the beast created by Blair, the
Liberal Democrats will undoubtedly be waiting with open arms to take them into
their fold.
The Liberal Democrats may not be the a perfect match for disaffected Labour
voters - many still think Kennedy failed to speak out as loud as he could
have done against the US-led, Iraq war, but he does have the defence that he
was lied to, as we all were, and he did his best, considering anyone speaking
out in Parliament was condemned as a traitor for doing so - but the Brent East
result shows the voters are happy enough with him for the time being at
least.
The Liberal Democrats have benefited from the support of disillusioned Labour
voters, and those who don't want to see the party with Blair at its helm
go further, and will undoubtedly continue to draw the protest vote and benefit
from tactical voting until Labour mends its way.
Blair's response in the aftermath of comprehensive defeat has been to say that
he is prepared to listen to what the electorate has to say - and about f--king
time, Tony - but he's not prepared to "waver" or change direction in his stance
on Iraq and his a--e-licking support of George W Bush, let alone any of the
other policies which have set the electorate apart from the Party. So we can
soon expect see him meeting with those members of his party who are still
clinging-on in the hope of saving it, nodding and agreeing profusely that things
do need to change, when it would be more honest if he were to stick his fingers
in his ears and run round the room going, "La-la, la-la lah ... Not listening".
It's all well and good promising to do what the electorate want, but it's
pointless to say that if he won't, and past evidence suggests he pays little
more than lip service to those who disagree with him. Blair is a control freak
and doesn't really seem to care what party members went. This is his party;
built on a belief of one man, one vote - he's the man, and he has the vote.
Blair is a liability to the Labour Party. The electorate know it, those who have
bailed-out of his Cabinet know it, and even the party faithful are starting to
realise the truth.
If the Labour Party wants to secure another turn in office, it has no choice but
to rid itself of Blair's services. If he won't go then he will have to be
pushed. And it will be about time too.
